Thoughts... -------- If you read up on the events you come to find that since the disbanding of Soviet Union in 1991 Georgia has been wanting to take South Ossetia for itself, but Ossetia wanting to remain a seperatist state, fought back. In 1992 Georgia eventually conceeded, not wanting to provoke large-scale Russian involvement and a ceasefire was drawn up. However, since then there have been numerous smaller political and military clashes between Georgia and South Ossetia, with the most recent flare up in violence being in the past week. Russia responded this time, rightly so I believe. Hopefully there'll be peace negotiations soon because I don't want to see this get more serious than it already is. -------- I hope that the conflict won't overreach the mandate the Russians have apparently given themselves to protect the area. Once troops are on the ground, it is often difficult (for a variety of reasons/excuses) to bring them home again. Remember, the USA has used planned war pretexts in the past (Lusitania - WW1, Gulf of Tonkin - Vietnam) so to assume that we're getting the whole story from Russia (whose government is historically predisposed to intrigue, espionage and expansionism) may prove to be naive. Incidently, the timing is more than convenient. Call me a cynic but part of me thinks this has been planned for some time. Best case scenario: The Russians devastating superiority of firepower brings a swift end to the conflict at the cost of many Georgian lives. The Georgians retreat to their legitimate borders. A UN patrolled DMZ is established. Worst case scenario: The Russians military supremacy proves to be illusionary as a brutal guerrilla war begins. Massive casualties on all sides. In order to stamp out Georgian resistance a full scale invasion of Georgia and Ossetia takes place. Population centres are devastated by Russian air power as a prelude to the tank divisions rolling in. Soon it becomes apparent that Russia is using the opportunity to bring Georgia and Ossetia forcibly into the Russian Federation. The USA 'does an Afganistan' and covertly uses its resources and CIA types to fuel the fires of Georgian resistance. A ten year war of occupation begins and international relations between East and West crumble. ---------- The Russians have sent tanks and aircraft into georgia in support of the south ossetians (if that's how you spell it), possibly because a lot of Russian nationals in Georgia want are having problems with the Georgian government. I seriously doubt that it's about the Russians wanting to retake georgia and start a new soviet union as it will probaby collapse as fast if not faster than the old one. the russans will probably beat the georgians and then withdraw at the behest of the UN. Is it just me, or are the Russians doing a lot of the ' I'm here, look at my big tank, i'm still a world player' thing recently? flying bombers over NATO airspace and attacking georgia. Then again, the US invades people all the time so maybe they are just showing that they can do it too. ---------- I like it how the USA and friends invade a country thousands of miles from home (Iraq) and that is somehow just and yet when Russia protect a state from an ally of NATO who sneakily time their invasion with the beginning of the Olympics then somehow the Russians are in the wrong. Typical glorious 'western democracy', you have a right to choose as long as you make the right choice. Whats that you say? You consider yourself Russian? Well consider yourself an area with no electricity then, and with your choice also comes military bombardment. Georgia treats Ossetians like ---- but because Georgia hates Russia then its a "valued friend of the West", well with friends like that who needs terrorists? Anyone with a hint of nuetrality would see the Georgians need to get their asses handed to them here. I fail to see why any Western nation needs to get involved. You poke a bear in the eye then you should not expect your friends to help you fight it. Now they want a cease-fire? Seems about right, punch someone in the face then ask for a cease fire. All this over an area 1,506 square miles in size with the population of a small city. ---------- its also nice to know that Geogre is attacking escaping refuges/hospitals and then asking for a ceasefire. after reading that wiki page it would seem unjust if US forces step in would be the pot calling the kettle black, but any truth to " Daniel Fried said that it appeared that the South Ossetians were the provokers of the violence. Fried said, "We have urged the Russians to urge their South Ossetian friends to pull back and show greater restraint. And we believe that the Russians ... are trying to do just that." that if Geogre doesn't back off they should just let Russia walk over them...... --------- I'm just imagining it. You could fit many of those countries in my city alone. I'm just picturing 2 small armies invading my town over territorial control. Sounds really fishy on both sides. It really seems like they have both been provoking each other. I have an inkling that this was definitely planned. For what reason? Maybe a pre-text for Russian to invade Georgia? Since the only acceptable way to enter into war is to 'defend' your citizens. History shows us that the majority of first strikes are staged as an excuse to get into war. Because mutually hating each other and agreeing to bomb the crap out of one another is apparently frowned upon by the UN. Georgia vowed to re-take the territory. What does Russia want? Someone said oil pipelines. Can anyone confirm this? ----------- ......... And much more on The Escapist. They've already had a debate about it there... really though, it seems cut-and-dry to me, I understand all the sides of it though, it's really a finicky matter and you have to actually research this to understand and really know what's going on. Most are making opinions not knowing the exact situation.
Russia isn't that powerful, all things considered. They are dreadfully torn apart, dreadfully poor, and very poorly ran. They might have something against Georgia, but that's about all they can handle, I mean, really. However, I get kind of tired of people saying, "It's none of your business!" Well, it is. Think about how much this will effect the US. Gas prices will go up, I'm sure. Even if it doesn't, which isn't my main point so let it go, the UN's job is to make peace around the world, it's common knowledge that almost every time it takes war, or conflict of some kind to create peace. Seeing as the US is the UN (virtually, anyways both in money and physical work) it is our job to worry about other countries.
For the record, I consider myself neutral on this one; I don't think what the Georgians did was right, but I definitely don't think the Russians are in the right here, either. Iraq wasn't anywhere near justified, in my opinion. I used to think it was, but then I realized that blind nationalism gets me nowhere. I don't think very many here will bring that up. Having said that, Georgia is an American ally (part of the "coalition of the willing," if memory serves me correctly). I think the US can get pissed if it wants; tell me, which nation isn't a hypocrite nowadays? France, Germany, and the other nations of Europe? The UN? NATO? Please. Personally, I've been waiting on the Georgian president to stand up and ask where the support is; they've sent a large part of their military to Iraq; it would be a tough question to answer if he asks Bush to return the favor. Iraq was pretty much the extent of Georgian military capability, and that was 2,000 combat troops. Not much to stand up against one of the largest militaries in the world, even a largely conscript army with piss-poor readiness. You bring up Georgian massacres. I'm not going to be an idiot and say that they haven't done it, but I'd take a look at the other side as well; the Ossetians, especially their irregular forces, haven't been very ----- either, and that's putting it lightly. The Georgians have shelled civilian areas; so have the Russians, if I remember correctly. Russian timing was rather good, actually; the Georgians were preparing to enter NATO, right? An attack on a NATO member means an attack on all members; kudos to Putin and Medvedvev for pulling that one off. (I'm not talking about starting the war here, I'm talking about entering Georgia, which I believe they shouldn't have done). Russia's track record on the "no electricity" thing isn't very good. They shut off Belarus's (or was it Ukraine?) power a few years ago (during winter, no less), simply because that nation was beginning to be friendly to the West. I don't think the Russians are trying to start a new USSR or anything; I do think they're trying to regain some of the "world power" status, though. I don't think going to war over a potential oil pipeline, friendliness with the West, or whatever other reason they have for doing this, is the way to go about it. If you're going to play apologist for the Russians and the Ossetians, at least look at the facts. I remember one of the justifications during the run-up to the war being Georgian sniper fire, using American .50 caliber rifles. Supposedly they popped a civilian from three klicks away; that second-rate military has got some kick-ass riflemen then - the longest recorded kill was somewhere around two kilos away, and that was a Canadian in Afghanistan. I don't doubt that they've been doing some sniping, but some of these reports are a little out there. And yet the Russians claim that Georgian reports are pure propaganda...
